Renewables power limit calculation using Monte Carlo simulation

Cálculo del límite de potencia renovable mediante simulación Monte Carlo


  • Moises Ferrer Vallin Universidad Tecnológica de la Habana, José Antonio Echeverría, La Habana
  • Pablo Sánchez Yáñez Unión Eléctrica, La Habana
  • Ariel Santos Fuentefria Universidad Tecnológica de La Habana, José Antonio Echeverría, Cujae


Introducing renewable non-dispatchable energy sources such as wind and solar (PV) into a power system can cause frequency deviation problems in steady-state operation scenarios. These problems are mainly related to their inherent variability and the characteristics of the grid they are connected to. These problems can be amplified in isolated power systems. This research consists in calculating the maximum value of wind and solar PV that can be connected in an isolated power system while maintaining the frequency deviation values within standard limits. An algorithm based in Monte Carlo simulations was developed to fulfil this objective. The results obtained using the described algorithm show that, in an isolated power system, renewable power values increase, frequency deviations also increase, eventually failing to comply with grid code regulations. Results also show that introducing a properly sized energy storage helps decreasing out-of-limits frequency deviations, complying with the grid code regulations.