Implementation of a System for Forecasting Power Generation for Photovoltaic Parks

Implementación de un sistema de pronóstico de generación eléctrica para parques fotovoltaicos

Resumen

In this research, a 24 hours power generation forecast system is presented for photovoltaic facilities connected to the National Power Grid in Cuba. The system described, is based on the numerical weather forecast model WRF, which is run operationally four times a day at the Center of Atmospheric Physics of the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba. The system deliveries each day about the time of 7:00 AM the hourly forecasts of power generation for the next day, for a set of photovoltaic (PV) parks, so the National Charge Dispatch Office (DNC), which is responsible for planning the amount of energy to be generated in order to meet the estimated demand, can take into account the contribution of these facilities, which can be fluctuating in dependence of the weather conditions. The system forecasts are evaluated against power generation and solar radiation data, which is reported daily from each park.