Resilience empirical analysis of the Cuban economy's energy sources between years 1971-2050 using HHI and LKI

Análisis empírico de resiliencia de las fuentesenergéticas de la economía cubana entre los años 1971-2050 utilizando HHI y LKI

Resumo

This article focuses on the Cuban economy and its ability to recover its energy sources and associated technology. This study includes three resilience analyses: (1) total energy consumption, (2) indigenous energy sources, and (3) imported energy consumption. These three resilience analyzes are performed using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and the Lauraéus-Kaivo-oja Index. The historical time horizon of these resilience analyzes is between 1971 and 2018. Along with these historical analyzes of energy sources, a long-term scenario from the International Energy Agency, IEA, will also be put into practice until the year 2050 to Cuba based on HH and LK indices. The article predicts that while demand for fossil fuels has collapsed during the Covid-19 crisis, renewable energy production should continue to grow. These resilience analyzes of the Cuban energy economy provide useful information on the Cuban energy planning process.